LESSON 1

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

Ø Important concepts:

o Population Distribution

o Population Dynamics

Ø Definition of terms

Ø Brief review of the correlates of the Ethiopian population dynamics

Ø Recent Demographic Trends

Population: A Brief Introduction

Statisticians use the term “population” to denote a collection of things. Demographers, however, use it in reference to “the collection of persons alive at a specified point in time who meet certain criteria” [1]

“We entered the 20thcentury with a population of 1.6 billion people. We entered the 21st century with 6.1 billion people”. [2]. There are 6.6 billion people in the world today. Two countries – China and India – have over a billion people each. As a matter of fact, almost two-thirds of humanity (4.1 billion) lives in the Asian continent. If we add Africans now numbering nearly a billion, we cover four-fifths of humanity.

This year, 81.6 million people will be added to the world population, all but 1.6 million in the less developed countries (LDC). Some of the developed countries (DC) are actually experiencing a slow down in population growth rates, or an actual decline in population. The world is also on the eve of a major urban-rural shift. For the first time in human history more people will be living in urban, rather than rural, areas. This is projected to happen in 2008 [2].

The following table shows important population milestones – estimates of when each billion was or will be reached.

Population	1 billion	2 billion	3 billion	4 billion	5 billion	6 billion	7 billion	8 billion	9 billion
Year	1804	1927	1961	1974	1987	1999	2011	2024	2042
Years until next billion	123	34	13	13	12	12	13	18

POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND DYNAMICS

Population Distribution

Population distribution refers to the manner in which population numbers are spread over a geographical area. A prominent characteristic of the distribution of human populations anywhere in the world is its unevenness. One of the many measures of population distribution is Population Density. This relates the number of people inhabiting an area, to the land size of the area. Such calculations form the basis of Choropleth (shading) maps you see above and advanced graphic soft wares such as the Geographic Information System (GIS) have made the task much easier. “Places which are sparsely populated contain few people. Places which are densely populated contain many people” [3]. Sparsely settled areas of the world tend to be those with harsh physical environments, and present formidable obstacles to human activities needed for survival such as farming. Good examples are the major deserts like the Sahara, or relatively smaller ones like the Ogaden, as well as permanently frigid lands such as Antarctica. Densely settled places include most of Europe, Southern and Southeastern Asia as well as many Weredas in the Amhara, Ormomia, and SNNRP region of Ethiopia These tend to be less hostile to human habitation, and pose lesser challenges to economic activities such as farming and manufacturing.

Factors Determining Population Distribution

In this online course, we will make extensive use of online sources to put together all of the salient facts of human population include its distribution. The table below shows one such effort. There are two classes of determining factors: Physical, and Human [3].

What determines population distribution and density?

Physical Factors	High Density	Low Density
Topography (the size, height and shape of a local land mass)	Low-lying, undulating plains that are flat e.g. The Nile River Valley and Delta in Egypt.	Rugged and mountainous landmass, e.g. Semien Mountains and the Arssi-Bale massif.
Resources	Places endowed with abundant resources (e.g. fertile land, easily extractable minerals, fuel and construction wood, fishing etc.) tend to densely populated This has been the case with most densely populated areas of Ethiopia, but overpopulation, land degradation and resource depletion are posing major challenges.	Areas with low resource base tend to be sparsely populated e.g. Much of the rugged and barren mountain sides of northern and eastern Ethiopia where volcanic rocks predominate.
Climate	Areas with optimum temperature and precipitation such as in the temperate climatic regions of the world tend to be densely populated. Example: most of the densely populated Weredas of the Amhara, Oromia, and SNNPR regions of Ethiopia	Places of extreme temperature tend to be sparsely populated. Example: the Ogaden and other lowlands in the Somali and Afar regions.

Human Factors	High Density	Low Density
Political	Stable and democratic governments foster favorable a political climate for economic growth and expansions there by enabling people to make long-term plans about where to live. The population itself is stable due to a lesser need to cross borders, whether local or international, to escape persecution. There are enumerable examples of such dislocations in the recent political history of Ethiopia.	Political instability could push people out and lead to lesser densities. Moreover, the lack of a stable environment precludes long-term investment in time and energy to create a favorable habitation for individuals and families. Several examples could be cited from Ethiopia’s past.
Social	It is a fact that Ethiopia is one of the most ethnically diverse countries in Africa. It is also a fact that groups of people want to live close to each other for security in environments where venturing outside of one’s usual domicile could be perceived as a hostile action. Fitting example are often cited from the Afar region where resource scarcity and the possibility of conflict requires close-knit family and clan structures for survival.	In the developed world, the danger of dealing with strangers has lead to preference for privacy and isolation. Millions have fled the densely inhabited downtown areas of major metropolis in favor of the quieter suburbia.
Economic	Whether in the developed or developing worlds, good job opportunities lead, in general, to high population densities. Millions of young Ethiopians have flocked to near-by towns and distant cities in search of a better life, and stayed there. Ethiopian cities and towns have gained in density, as a result, while the sending countryside lost some.	Limited prospects to better oneself, and lack of job opportunities can lead to fewer people per unit of a habitable are, and there by, to lower densities.

Population Dynamics

“It took all of human history until 1830 for world population to reach one billion. The second billion was achieved in 100 years, the third billion in 30 years, the fourth billion in 15 years, and the fifth billion in only 12 years”. [3] Opinions are divided when it comes to global (or national) population numbers and growth rates. There are two camps. One camp decries what it views the un abating acceleration in the number and growth rates of world/national populations. The other camp unconcerned or even views population growth as a good thing.

The good news in for those advocating population control is with expanded use o birth control in the second half of the 20t century developing countries including the population giants China and India have managed to substantially reduce their population’s growth rates. The average number of children born to women in the LDCs has fallen from about six in the 1960s to less than three today. In other words, the LDCs are undergoing a transition from high birth/death rate regimes to low birth/death rate regimes already undergone by the developed countries (see the graph below) of the world [3]. This transition is known to demographers and all other students of population as the Demographic Transition, and the theory behind it is known as the Demographic Transition Theory. Is Ethiopia undergoing a transition? We will examine this briefly in this chapter, and more comprehensively in the Mortality and Fertility chapters.

[image - demographic transition model]

Source: http://www.geography.learnontheinternet.co.uk/topics/popn1.html [3]

Why Study Populations?

Statistics on population are vital to a country's development and for planning of future needs such as schools, hospitals, fiscal and economic planning, as well as overall governance. Population denominators are needed to assess pressure on land, infection rates of a new epidemic, birth rates, per capita income, dependency ratios, etc. Calculations of direct and 'standardized' mortality or morbidity rates, life expectancies at various ages, also require detailed breakdowns by age and gender. It is important to note, however, that population estimates are merely a snap-shot in time, a cross-sectional look at possible underlying causes of the population dynamics, and by no means a longitudinal motion-picture-like image of all population processes [4].

Demography Defined

The population reference bureau defines demography (population studies) [5] [6] as follows:

“Demography, or more generally, population studies, is the study of human populations: their size, composition, and distribution, as well as the causes and consequences of changes in these characteristics. Demography is clearly a discipline because it is a field with its own body of interrelated concepts, techniques, journals, departments, and professional associations. It is also an interdisciplinary field because it draws from many disciplines, including sociology, economics, biology, geography, history, and the health sciences. Nearly all the major events of people’s lives have demographic implications: birth, schooling, marriage, occupational choices, childbearing, retirement, and death”

A term often used in population studies/demography is “dynamics”. This relates to a basic population fact: that it is never static. Populations don’t always grow, however. They decline at times (think of all of the civilizations that have come and gone) through the interplay of the major population events, also referred to as vital events: mortality, fertility, and migration. These three form the core structure of the main page of this website, and of the online course you are now taking. Different elements within the same population could be changing at different pace or rate. This fact introduces us to another important concept in population, namely, composition.

Terms You Need to Learn Quickly

Technical terms you need to learn quickly in the next few days include the following [7]. To know the meaning of a term, just click on it. Remember to hit the “back” button on your navigator/explorer window to come back to this website. Good luck !

The Population of Ethiopia: A Brief Introduction

Genetics

A recent work sought to unravel the genetic makeup of Ethiopian. Pooled samples were collected from a total of seventy seven unrelated males (19 Oromos, and 58 speakers of the Semitic languages Amharic, Tigrigna and Guragigna). The data had been pulled because the two groups did not show important differences – so much for the ethnic hatred and sense of distinctness, even supremacy harbored by some [8]. To the delight (or dismay) of those seeking to amplify an African or non-African connection when tracing their roots, the test,

……led to the hypothesis that the Ethiopian population (1) experienced Caucasoid gene flow mainly through males, (2) contains African components ascribable to Bantu migrations and to an in situ differentiation process from an ancestral African gene pool, and (3) exhibits some Y-chromosome affinities with the Tsumkwe San (a very ancient African group). Our finding of a high (20%) frequency of the “Asian” DdeI10394AluI10397 (11) mtDNA haplotype in Ethiopia is discussed in terms of the “out of Africa”

model.

The Cradle of Mankind

Given that the oldest known human ancestor “Lucy”/ “Dinkinesh” was found in the Afar region of Ethiopia, all of humanity can claim to be Ethiopians. “It is in the Afar region of Ethiopia where scientists discovered the remains of "Lucy" or Dinkenesh, meaning "thou art wonderful," as she is known to the Ethiopians. "Lucy" lived more than three million years ago, and her bones now rest in the Ethiopian National Museum” [10]

Ethiopia’s unique status as a country of three thousand years of history and independence is a source of pride for its citizens. At fist blush, this would suggest a stable political environment with favorable implications for demographic change (see the chart above). A more detailed look reveals a different reality, however. Underneath the façade of millennia of quite historical calm prevailed centuries of violent upheavals and turmoil in the form of external invasions, internal expansionist moves, and power struggles. The 19^th and 20^th centuries are notable examples. The question here is: did these have effects on the country’s population dynamics? If yes, what were/are the consequences for population distribution and change? Answers are hard to come-by given the focus of history books on leaders – emperors, empresses, and princes as well their conquests and military prowess, rather than the lives of everyday Ethiopians – the great grandparents of today’s generation.

A few online publications on the country’s history make a brief mention of population matters [10, 11]:

“…… recent research in historical linguistics--and increasingly in archaeology as well--has begun to clarify the broad outlines of the prehistoric populations of present-day Ethiopia. These populations spoke languages that belong to the Afro-Asiatic super-language family, a group of related languages that includes Omotic, Cushitic, and Semitic, all of which are found in Ethiopia today. Linguists postulate that the original home of the Afro-Asiatic cluster of languages was somewhere in northeastern Africa, possibly in the area between the Nile River and the Red Sea in modern Sudan. From here the major languages of the family gradually dispersed at different times and in different directions--these languages being ancestral to those spoken today in northern and northeastern Africa and far southwestern Asia”.

“The first language to separate seems to have been Omotic, at a date sometime after 13,000 B.C. Omotic speakers moved southward into the central and southwestern highlands of Ethiopia, followed at some subsequent time by Cushitic speakers, who settled in territories in the northern Horn of Africa, including the northern highlands of Ethiopia. The last language to separate was Semitic, which split from Berber and ancient Egyptian, two other Afro-Asiatic languages, and migrated eastward into far southwestern Asia”.

Historical events that have had clear but unknown impacts on population numbers, dynamics, and distribution include, but are not limited to:

Ø Wars

Ø Large-scale population movements (migrations)

Ø Famine

Ø Disease (including animal diseases)

Ø Rural urban migrations of the post-World War II period with the Italian invasion as the trigger point

Ø Forced relocations: Case in point, socialist resettlement and villagization during the 1980’s, as well as planned resettlement by the current government

Ø Political instability, civil-war/war of independence, and the resulting elevated mortality of the last quarter of the 20^th century with possible fertility impacts

Population Trends 1900 - present

Some have ventured an estimate of the country’s population in different historical periods. A recent UN report [12] states:

“Available data indicate that the population increased fourfold between 1900 and 1988”

The rate of natural increase was estimated at 0.3% for the early part of the 20^th century – only a tenth of the 2.9% annual growth suggested by the 1984 census. The estimate of the population total for 1900 was 11.8 million (see Fig 1a below). The report also adds…“it took 60 years for this to double to 23.6 million in 1960. It took only 28 years for the population in 1960 to double to 47.3 million in 1988”.

Ethiopia conducted its first ever population census in 1984. The census covered 81 percent of the population. The rest had to be estimated due, mainly, to security concerns spawned by the secessionist wars in the north. It gave a total count of 42 million and a growth rate of 3.1 percent [13, 14].

The figure below is based on (a) estimates for all the years prior to the 1984 census, (b) estimates for the intercensal years, and (c) projections to the year 2030. The fact that we are using the words “estimates” and “projections” suggest that we should not place full trust on the numbers for the decades shown, or in future trends suggested by the trend line.

Fig.1a. Population Trends: 1900 to 2030

Source: Based on : http://www.populstat.info/Africa/ethiopic.htm

The second census was conducted 10 years later in 1994 and, unlike the first, this one covered the entire country (Eritrea had broken away and become independent by then). The second census gave a population total of 53.5 million. The growth rate at this time had declined somewhat, down to 2.9 percent [15]. The table below shows changes during the intercensal period.

Most of the estimates for the pre-1984 period came from sample surveys: the 1964-67 National Demographic Survey 1^st round, the 1968-69 National Demographic Survey 2^nd round, and the 1981 demographic survey. Subsequently, better organized and survey analyses have been conducted including the 1990 National Family and Fertility Survey (NFS), the 1995 Fertility Survey of Urban Addis Ababa, and the 2000 and 2005 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Surveys (EDHS).

Fig. 1b. Population change during the 1984 – 94 period.

Source: Based on [15]

Figure 1b shows changes between the two censuses. Expectedly, not much movement was observed in life expectancies (defined in the mortality chapter) of males or female Ethiopians. Substantial differences are observed in population numbers as well as density.

Urbanization

The table below shows percentage changes in the population sizes of 85 cities and towns. Two urban centers – Moyale and Gambella - experienced a population increase of over 500 percent during the study period, and three towns – Boditi, Jinka, and Ziway - grew by over 400 while an additional five towns – Adigrat, Asosa, Jijiga Kombolcha and Shakiso, , gained between 300 and 400 percent. If the data is correct, this shows a phenomenal growth whose underlying causes and correlates need to be studied and documented. A total of 21 towns grew between and 200 and 300 percent while an additional 50 towns more than doubled their population (100 – 200 percent). There is no clear indication of a link between location and growth rate as the towns in the various classes of growth are spread all over the regions.

The spectacular growth suggested by Table 1a, gives, at first glance, the sense that Ethiopia’s population is predominantly urban. This is far from the truth, however. According to the Ethiopian Central Statistical Authority (CSA) “the total projected population of the country for July 2007is estimated to be 77,127,000 persons, of whom 64,438,000 are rural and 12,689,000, urban. Urban areas refer to all capitals of regions, zones and weredas, and it also includes localities with rban kebeles whose inhabitants are primarily engaged in nonagriculturalactivities.” In other words, only 16.5 percent is urban [16].

	%		%		%
	Growth		Growth		Growth
City/Town	Rate	City/Town	Rate	City/Town	Rate

Adet	225	Debre Zeyit	157	K'olito (Alaba K'ulito) {Kolito}	208
Adigrat	300	Degeh Bur		Korem	213
Addis Ababa	110	Dembi Dolo	148	Maych'ew {Maychew}	142
Adis Zemen	172	Derwernache (Derwonaji)		Mekele	175
Adwa	208	Dese	146	Mek'i {Meki}	228
Agaro	121	Dila	155	Metahara	247
Agere Maryam	211	Dire Dawa	187	Metu	176
Aksum	166	Dodola	199	Mojo	182
Alamata	225	Dolo		Mot'a {Mota}	143
Aleta Wendo	111	Fiche	122	Moyale	519
Arba Minch	215	Finote Selam	194	Nazret	200
Areka	427	Gambela	597	Negele	28
Arsi Negele	222	Genet (Holata)	155	Nekemte	193
Asayita		Gimbi	180	Robe	241
Asbe Teferi	194	Ginir	151	Sawla (Felege Neway)	280
Asela	130	Giyon (Waliso)	171	Sebeta	150
Asosa	386	Goba	121	Shakiso	302
Awasa	246	Gode		Shambu	146
Awubere		Gonder	141	Shashemene	195
Bahir Dar	205	Hagere Hiywet (Ambo)	185	Shewa Robit	154
Bati	142	Harer	51	Sodo	167
Bedele	205	Hartisheik		Softu
Bichena		Himora	143	Weldiya	172
Boditi	452	Hosaina	279	Welenchiti	183
Bure	185	Inda Silase	243	Welkite	253
Butajira	171	Jijiga	323	Wenji Gefersa	-34
Chagne	267	Jima	161	Werota	205
Dangila	152	Jinka (Bako)	402	Wik'ro {Wikro}	119
Debark' {Debark}	195	Kebri Dehar		Yirga 'Alem {Yirga Alem}	174
Debre Birhan	161	Kembolcha	336	Yirga Chefe	153
Debre Markos	115	Kibre Mengist	151	Ziway	445
Debre Tabor	156	Kobo	167

Table 1a Percentage growth rate of cities and towns – 1984 – 2006

Source: Based on: http: //www.citypopulation.de/Ethiopia.html

References:

1. Samuel Preston (et.al). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell

2. Publishers. 2001.

3. http://www.geography.learnontheinternet.co.uk/topics/popn1.html

4. http://www.scotpho.org.uk/web/site/home/Populationdynamics/Population/population_intro.asp

5. http://www.prb.org/pdf07/62.3Highlights.pdf

6. Joseph A. McFalls Jr. (ed.) Population: A Lively Introduction, Population Reference Bureau, Population Bulletin, March 2007.

7. http://www.ined.fr/en/lexicon/).

8. Giuseppe Passarino, Ornella Semino, Lluı´s Quintana-Murci, Laurent Excoffier, Michael Hammer, and A. Silvana Santachiara-Benerecetti, 1998, Different Genetic Components in the Ethiopian Population, Identified bymtDNA and Y-Chromosome Polymorphisms, American Journal of Human Genetics, 62:420-434

9. http://www.ethiopianembassy.org/history.shtml

10. http://www.selamta.net/history.htm

11. http://countrystudies.us/ethiopia/4.htm

12. http://www.populationinstitute.org/population-issues/index.php

13. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population

14. http://www.photius.com/countries/ethiopia/society/ethiopia_society_size_distribution_~168.html

15. Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey 2005 Central Statistical Agency, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia , RC Macro, Calverton, Maryland, USA, September 2006

16. Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia, The 2006National Statistics, http://www.csa.gov.et/text_files/2006_national_statistics.htm